Showing posts with label Petroleum Age. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Petroleum Age. Show all posts
Friday, October 15, 2010
No More Happy Motoring - There Is No "Plan B", North America "remains highly vulnerable to a liquid fuel emergency disruption"
To meet climbing global requirements, OPEC will have to increase its output from 30 MBD to at least 50 MBD. Significantly, no OPEC nation, except perhaps Saudi Arabia, is investing sufficient sums in new technologies and recovery methods to achieve such growth. Some, like Venezuela and Russia, are actually exhausting their fields to cash in on the bonanza created by rapidly rising oil prices. (p. 26)
A severe energy crunch is inevitable without a massive expansion of production and refining capacity. While it is difficult to predict precisely what economic, political, and strategic effects such a shortfall might produce, it surely would reduce the prospects for growth in both the developing and developed worlds. (p. 28)
Well, the amounts needed from OPEC are quite, shall we say, 'ambitious,' as they amount to an additional two Saudia Arabias coming on line in order to make up the shortfall. A massive crunch is not otherwise avoidable.Future Chaos: There Is No "Plan B"
Let's be honest; there are no more Saudia Arabias to be found...
by Chris Martenson
Fri, 15 Oct 2010
Note: This article builds on my recent report, Prediction: Things Will Unravel Faster Than You Think. It explores the coming energy crunch in more detail by looking at existing government planning and awareness, and the implications of what international recognition of Peak Oil as early as 2012 might mean.
The hard news is that there is no "Plan B." The future is likely to be more chaotic than you probably think. This was the primary conclusion that I came to after attending the most recent Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas (ASPO) in Washington, DC in October, 2010.The impact of Peak Oil on markets, lifestyles, and even national solvency deserves our very highest attention - but, it turns out, some important players seem to be paying no attention at all.
ASPO conferences tend to start early, end late, and be packed with more data and information than should be consumed in one sitting.
Despite all this, I was riveted to my seat. This year's usual constellation of excellent region-by-region analyses confirmed what past participants already knew: Peak Conventional Oil arrived a few years ago, and new fields, enhanced recovery techniques, and unconventional oil plays are barely going to keep up with demand over the next few years.
But there were two reports that really stood out for me.
The first was given by Rear Admiral Lawrence Rice, who presented the findings of the 2010 Joint Operating Environment (a forward-looking document examining the trends, contexts, and implications for future joint force commanders in the US military), which spends 76 pages summarizing the key trends and threats of the world.
"Energy" occupies six of those pages, and Peak Oil dominates the discussion.
Among the conclusions (on page 29), we find this hidden gem, which uses numbers and timing that are eerily similar to those that I put forth in my April 2009 report, Oil - The Coming Supply Crunch:
By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 MBD. (Source)In Full, At EnergyBulletin.com
Friday, September 3, 2010
Dmitry Orlov On "The Poverty of Imagination in an Era of Diminishing Resources"
Products and Services for the Permanently Unemployed Consumer
Predictions For The United States of America During The Second Decade Of The XXI Century
Also see: Closing The Collapse Gap by Dimitry Orlov. A point by point comparison of the collapse of the Russian economy compared to what might happen under similar circumstances in the U.S.
...and of course there's much more at Dmitry's site, ClubOrlov
Tuesday, April 13, 2010
Untenable Lifestyle Alert! US military warns oil output may dip causing massive shortages by 2015 - Guardian UK
"The actual report can be found here (PDF) but the peak oil assertions are buried fairly deep inside (see p.29), and certainly not underlined in the summary... so we have a fairly schizophrenic approach here, with peak oil acknowledged but downplayed... (for the 2005 view on peak oil by the US Army, see also this report (PDF))
It looks like someone found the nuggets deep in the report, and fed them to friends in the media. Interesting times..."
(Say Buh-Bye To All That "Stuff")
The Wicks Review on UK energy policy published last summer effectively dismissed fears but Lord Hunt, the British energy minister, met concerned industrialists two weeks ago in a sign that it is rapidly changing its mind on the seriousness of the issue.Further...
...there are signs that the US Department of Energy might also be changing its stance on peak oil. In a recent interview with French newspaper, Le Monde, Glen Sweetnam, main oil adviser to the Obama administration, admitted that "a chance exists that we may experience a decline" of world liquid fuels production between 2011 and 2015 if the investment was not forthcoming.
("...the answer to the issue of knowing when, where and in which quantities additional sources of oil should be put on-stream remains widely “unidentified” in the eyes of the most prominent official analyst on energy inside the Obama administration.")
In Other Words:Say goodbye to a culture based on 'plastic crap' folks. The last few drops of 'black blood' will be used to power the Pentagon's military machine defending us from a world of enemies we've created for ourselves, NOT to run your car on your last long drive down to the store for a sixxer and some cigs. Did you ever think otherwise?
Even the food we eat is grown in an artificial environment based on petroleum derived fertilizers, and the pills you take to stay calm... petroleum-based production facilities and ingredients... poised to be unavailable as American society collapses.
Terry Macalister
guardian.co.uk
Sunday 11 April 2010 18.47 BST
• Shortfall could reach 10m barrels a day, report says
• Cost of crude oil is predicted to top $100 a barrel
The US military has warned that surplus oil production capacity could disappear within two years and there could be serious shortages by 2015 with a significant economic and political impact.
The energy crisis outlined in a Joint Operating Environment report from the US Joint Forces Command, comes as the price of petrol in Britain reaches record levels and the cost of crude is predicted to soon top $100 a barrel.
"By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 million barrels per day," says the report, which has a foreword by a senior commander, General James N Mattis.
It adds: "While it is difficult to predict precisely what economic, political, and strategic effects such a shortfall might produce, it surely would reduce the prospects for growth in both the developing and developed worlds. Such an economic slowdown would exacerbate other unresolved tensions, push fragile and failing states further down the path toward collapse, and perhaps have serious economic impact on both China and India.
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
Our Future and the End of the Oil Age: Building Resilience in a Resource-Constrained World - Dimitry Orlov
Hit play and the slides will change @ 15 second intervals
Or manually advance and rewind the slides with the < > buttons.
[Cartoon H/t: "Peoples Geography - Reclaiming Space"]
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