"The West won the world not by the superiority of its ideas or values or religion, but rather by its superiority in applying organized violence. Westerners often forget this fact, non-Westerners never do.”" ~~~~Samuel P. Huntington

Sunday, January 23, 2011

The 2011 "Weather Report" For America's War On Afghanistan - It's Going To Be A Stormy Blood-Soaked Year

H/t: Free Range International ("Outside the Wire, Inside the Loop")

Afghanistan (Combat Incident) Summary

by babatim on November 7th, 2010

See here for January 15 2011 update, "The Start of a Long Year"
[Click thumbnail for a larger chart]
Breakdown of TB (Taliban)/ AGE (Anti-Government Element [ie. Tribal Fighters]) incidents by Regions:

1. South-eastern Region
(140 incidents – 36% of countrywide incidents)

2. Southern Region (125 incidents – 32%)

3. Eastern Region (36 incidents – 9%)

4. Central Region (34 incidents – 9%)

5. Western Region (21 incidents – 5%)

6. North-eastern Region (21 incidents – 5%)

7. Northern Region (16 incidents – 4%)

8. Central Highlands (0 incidents)
Main types of attacks have remained consistent with earlier weeks; IEDs (163 – previous week 164) have remained the numbers one tactic, followed by CPX (complex) attacks (82 – previous week 81), SAF (Small Arms Fire) attacks (76 – previous week 101) and rocket / mortar attacks (43 – previous week 42).

Suicide attacks have continued with average of 2.5 attacks per weekly, which is slightly lower than last year’s weekly average of 3 attacks per week. However, due to increasing usage of suicide bombers in complex attacks, the amount of “used” suicide bombers have continued increasing in Afghanistan.

If the same trend will continue throughout the winter we will have total of approx 17500 – 18000 TB / AGE initiated incidents on this year, which would be approx 80% higher than last year.

And if the current trend would continue throughout the next year we could be witnessing approx 34000 – 36000 TB / AGE initiated incidents during the next year.

Although this is unlikely scenario and more likely the increase of attacks will not continue with the current pace, the outlook of next year is grim....
Source, and more
Kabul Afghanistan Boys
[Note: The statement "Both sides of the conflict" implies government and anti-government elements of the population]

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